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Notable &
Quotable
Over the years, Bill
Valentine has written a number of columns containing outlooks for
the stock market and economy. Below are examples of major
events and his correct reading of them, in advance. (Which is
not to say that he hasn't missed the mark from time to time.
In fact, at the end of every year, he appraises and passes judgment
on all the years "calls," in a showcase of the good, the bad, and
the ugly). Below the calls are additional, colorful quotes
from the past. [If you haven't already, please read this
site's
disclaimers,
lest our backside be fitted for a sling.]
Prescient Calls
"..a humbugian tone
weighs over the predictions about this retail season, and it’s got investors
anxious. But considering how wrong the consensus view has been, it’s amazing
anyone pays heed anymore. I’ll stick my neck out and be the token optimist and
opine on retail as a whole..."
-From
Re-tail between your legs?
12/18/02
(According to
CBS Marketwatch,
"Sales in the November-through-January period were up 3.6% on a
year-over-year basis, while sales excluding autos were up 4.8% -- contrary to
dire warnings that the holiday season was the worst in decades.")
______________________
"There’s a big stock rally coming. Whether or not
this rally becomes the start of the next Bull Market is anybody’s guess. But
we’re likely to quickly retrace and regain most of the
losses of the last three weeks."
-From
Four Reasons to Be Bullish
7/23/02
(Over the next 30 days, the
S&P 500 gained 20.6%.)
______________________
"I’m consumed with the desire to get low,
small, high, fast and foreign. That is, I’m feeling the
need to weight the portfolio towards stocks with low valuation, small
cap, high dividend yield, fast growth, or foreign listing."
-From
Get Small
6/11/01
(All of the mentioned groups,
spare "fast growing," outperformed the broad market over the following year.)
______________________
"...I had an epiphany in the middle of the night after the Nasdaq swung nearly 700 points on Tuesday... and cut my weight to technology stocks in half."
-From
Why We Halved Our Tech Weighting 4/5/00
(Unknown at the time, it was
within six weeks of the top for technology stocks.)
______________________
".. .I sold my entire position in Cisco (CSCO) last week, and that’s what this piece is about...I’m limiting my overall tech exposure, buying meaty helpings of non-techs, diversifying globally, and focusing my tech picks on contrarian, reasonably priced stocks."
-From
Adios, Cisco Kid 2/28/00
(While hugely unpopular at the
time, this column called the peak in Cisco a month later.)
______________________
"Ignore what the brokerage
houses tell you. As far as the brokerages are
concerned, if you stick your fingers in your ears every time a brokerage
spokesperson tells you what to do, you’ll be better off. This industry, under
assault from all sides, has a vested interest in creating transactions—and they
have no shame in suggesting a weekly shift in your investment choices.."
-From
Beat the Market by not becoming the Market 2/1/99
(After the market fell, the
conflicts of interest in this field finally moved to the forefront.)
______________________
"Bad press and a few vocal heretics have succeeded in elevating ‘The Y2K Problem’ to its ranks among ‘The Great Over-worries of All Time’...Let’s close this X-File…the truth is out there…Y2K is overblown."
-From
Mulder, Scully, and the Y2K Problem 6/22/98
(Contrary to pervasive paranoia
at the time, the article was right on.)
______________________
"...the greatest threat to global economic bliss (is) a major credit crunch…the ‘emerging’ countries are in a fragile state. Keep your eyes open…(and fingers crossed)."
-From
Global Credit Crunch 6/16/97
(Written one month before the start of the Emerging Market Crisis.)
______________________
Valentine
Vernacular
"The New Paradigmers believe that (we’ll see) a permanently higher level of productivity, growth, and stock market returns. Every time I hear this, I check to make sure my wallet’s still in my pants."
-From
The New Paradigm (and other assorted BS)
11/10/97
"Ten years ago shoemaker LA Gear had two interesting qualities:
a great stock and crappy shoes. It was a big shock to some when the stock imploded after the company’s sales evaporated."
-From
Beat the Market by not becoming the Market
2/1/99
"I'd add 'my stock selection process' to 'laws,' 'love,' and 'sausage,' as the list of
'Things You Don't Want To See Being Made."
-From
How I Pick a Stock: The Industry Choice
6/14/99
"This week, I want to talk about bonds. Umm...hmmm...zzzz...zzzzzz. OH! I'm sorry, I nodded off there."
-From
The Thrill-A-Minute World of Bonds
11/1/99
"Ah yes...all evidence points to the arrival of midyear in the high desert of central Oregon...My inner-fly-fisherman yearns for a Royal Humpy (that’s nothing sordid having to do with Mrs. Valentine, as any angler will attest)."
-From
Halftime Report 6/26/00
"Analytical discoveries within investment firms go something like this: ‘Hey! REIT stocks are really kicking butt!’"
-From
A Long Awaited REITurn to Favor 7/24/00
"...In my next life, I’m going to be a doctor. Were it not for an extensive education in Finance and all—and a penchant for fainting around needles—I might have gone down that path. Well, it was really about the needles. My wife’s recent epidural nearly made me drop like a sack of wheat."
-From
How I Joined the Healthcare Field 3/26/02
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