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"THE WEEKLY UPDATE"
"THE WEEKLY UPDATE"
In this “Confessions…” Bill Valentine talks about his obsession with Financial Scammers. But don’t worry, he’s doesn’t aspire to be one, but rather, wants you to give thought to the conditions that create the opportunity for this timeless transgression.
Watch to learn about to look for so that you won’t be the next victim of malfeasance by greedy financial types.
We have a history of alerting investors to bubbles and on that credibility we offer that there is a massive bubble forming right now. In fact, it’s the most important bubble impacting investors, and the public as a whole. It’s very easy and understandable to see where it came from.
But it’s here now, looms large, and we want to make you aware of it. It’s already wreaking damage and we hope to limit yours. Watch this week’s video to learn about the new bubble.
The stock market’s forward progress this year seems to have hit a speed bump. Naturally, the question becomes, “Is this something to worry about?”
The answer can be found by looking at why investors behave the way they do, the proper framing of the last few days, and what real changes there have been (or not) to the economic fundamentals from a week ago. This week, Bill Valentine tells you what he thinks is going on.
Two weeks ago, Bill Valentine explained that just because the Market was hitting a new high, it didn’t portend an imminent decline. In other words, just because the Market’s “up” doesn’t mean it will have to be “down” soon.
When the Market’s not hitting new highs, it can be setting back a bit, or moving sideways before getting back to new highs or “ups.” The opposite is true when it comes to Volatility. The Market is seeing low levels of volatility that it hasn’t seen in years. For some, that implies that a spike in Volatility is right around the next corner.
Maybe.
But maybe not.
There have been long, multi-year stretches where low Volatility led to…low volatility. Just because Volatility is “down,” doesn’t mean it has to be “up” soon.
With the S&P 500 hitting new All Time High levels, there is a growing chorus calling for the next big decline. It’s understandable…most investors are pessimistic and indeed fearful from what they’ve endured over the last 13 years. We only had one period after 2000 where the Market was hitting New Highs, and that only lasted a few months.
Is it the normal state of affairs for markets to hit highs for a brief period resulting in a Bear Market and many years devoid of New Highs?
Watch and find out whether or not New Highs lead to imminent declines.
It seems everywhere you turn, someone’s using the term “bubble” to describe the bond market. Google “bond bubble” and you get 18.4 million references (and increasing daily!).
Yet, to call the bond market a bubble is to misuse the term. Grossly. This week we remind you of the necessary components of a bubble, and use history to show you how things may play out from here.
One of the most dangerous set-ups with investing is when you find yourself not questioning your beliefs. By accepting as fact your current predictions about the future, you leave yourself vulnerable to that which you can’t conceive. No mind can adequately factor in all outcomes with investing.
This week, we look at the idea of the “Secular Bear Cycle,” and the precept that for the Cycle to be completed, we must see a single-digit valuation for the stock market. As an adherent to the Secular Cycle thesis, we’re especially challenged to think of reasons why this Cycle may NOT end in a single-digit valuation for stocks.
We put out a White Paper in 2005 espousing the Secular trend and need for a capitulatory trough where stocks were abandoned as part of how the next Secular Bull Market is born. But must this be the case, as many seem to put forth? Might the mind be seeking a pattern that may not be as firm as suggested?
Take a look at where we’ve been, and give thought to the outrageous contention that 2008 may have been the start of the new Cycle. Maybe yes…maybe no…but at least ponder it.
One of the most dangerous set-ups with investing is when you find yourself not questioning your beliefs. By accepting as fact your current predictions about the future, you leave yourself vulnerable to that which you can’t conceive. No mind can adequately factor in all outcomes with investing.
This week we look at the validity of the idea that Hyperinflation / Dollar Debasement is a foregone conclusion. Legions of neo-monetarists proclaim with supreme confidence that the actions of the Federal Reserve MUST lead to Hyperinflation. Yet, that chorus is four years old today, and no truer now than when the Fed began pumping the monetary base. The term Hyperinflation is used incorrectly by many, and too often in general. Very few people can tell you how it Hyperinflation can be avoided, as if there is no way—a silly contention.
Again, this money manager is not saying that there is NO way high- or hyper-inflation is possible—just that folks need to re-evaluate the premise and consider what they might be missing, which seems like quite a lot. A more balanced look at the risks and probability of Hyperinflation is in order, and we can’t have an intelligent dialogue about it until then.
One of the most dangerous set-ups with investing is when you find yourself not questioning your beliefs. By accepting as fact your current predictions about the future, you leave yourself vulnerable to that which you can’t conceive. No mind can adequately factor in all outcomes with investing.
This week, we begin by addressing the first of three widely held beliefs: that Emerging Markets will be the best places to invest for the decade ahead, because their economies are growing faster than the Developed world. Sounds to us like the case for Railroads vs. Tech Stocks in 2000.
Four weeks ago, Bill Valentine talked about his prediction for stocks in 2013. Two weeks later, he told you to ignore the predictions of any money manager, including himself.
This week, he’s providing more information about risk assets for the year, based on the Equity Risk Premium on US stocks. Confused? Don’t be.
The point is that you should never take these kinds of opinion as an instruction. Rather, they’re provided so you may consider them in arriving at your own view about how to invest. If you’re not in charge of your own investing, and needn’t form such an opinion then better still—this kind of information can be considered intellectual fodder if not trivial. In any event, watch this video! Cool chart involved that bodes well for US stocks, and thus global risk assets.
Valentine Ventures, LLC 550 SW Industrial Way Building Two, Suite 201 Bend, OR 97702
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