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The InvestMentor
June 11, 2001
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Get Small
It is not the encouragement of one
Steve Martin that has me thinking of getting small. Rather, because of
my updated market view, I’m consumed with the desire to get low,
small, high, fast and foreign. That is, I’m feeling the need to weight
the portfolio towards stocks with low valuation, small cap, high
dividend yield, fast growth, or foreign listing.
I’m not looking for all those qualities
in every stock. Instead, I’ve been focusing on stocks that bring one
or two of them to the party, with the goal of tilting the portfolio in
those directions. This week, I’ll cover these, my five coveted
qualities. Next week, staying true to the format, I will mention a
number of stocks examples of each. For now, I’m simply suggesting that
all stock portfolios would benefit from retooling along the following
lines, for the coming 12 months.
Low Valuation
The single most important factor about
any stock in this market needs to be its valuation. Specifically, high
valuation stocks are still the Achilles heel of the market. Contrary
to belief, valuations have not come down as much as stock prices,
because earning have fallen—including even technology stocks, that
have fallen the furthest in price, but also on the earnings front.
Consider Cisco (CSCO). Even though the
stock is down hugely from its high at $80, the valuations have hardly
budged. The PEG (P/E to Growth) at its peak was 4.5 ($80 stock over
$0.51 forward earnings, on top of a 35 percent growth rate). But today
it’s PEG is still a lofty 3.6 ($20 stock over $0.22 lowered, forward
earnings, on top of a newly-reduced 25 percent growth rate). So while
the stock price is down 75%, the valuations are only down 20%.
Right now, the broad market is still
richly valued by historical standards. The S&P 500’s trailing P/E is
27, significantly above it’s long term average of about 15. I’m still
bullish, and one could argue that valuations are partially justified
by the low interest rate/low inflation backdrop. But the market is
still vulnerable to changes in earnings growth projections, and the
jury is still out in that regard. Lower valuation stocks are less
sensitive to the discounting properties of future growth and
inflation, and therefore less risky for the foreseeable future.
A PEG of close to 1.0 is ideal, and my
portfolio is made up of below 2.0 PEGs.
Small Cap
Small and mid cap stocks have been in a
dry spell for several years. But that makes them cheap. To wit, the
Russell 3000 index of the largest 3000 stocks—which includes 2000
small and mid cap ones—has a P/E of 16, 40% lower than the
large-cap-dominated S&P 500. The best opportunities now are in the mid
cap ($1-$5 billion), and upper-small-cap ($500MM-$1B), range where
there is ample liquidity and institutional coverage.
High Dividend Yield
For the first time in several years,
I’m cherishing high dividend yield stocks—those with a 5% yield or
better. In an environment of low interest rates, and a bull market
that’s starting from a high-valuation platform, dividends will be a
large part of the appreciation picture. High dividend yield stocks
also tend to be lower valuation names.
Fast Growth
What if I’m wrong about my consistently
bullish outlook? Will any stocks do well? Sure—one’s who trade on
their own, fast growing fundamentals. My portfolio is leaning heavily
on stocks with projected long term earnings growth rates in excess of
20%, compared with the 10-15% projections for the average company. But
it’s important not to pay too much for the growth.
Foreign Listing
Foreign stocks that trade in the US,
known as ADRs, have lower valuations than their American counterparts
and bring diversification to a US-dominated portfolio. They have
allowed our portfolio to beat the US indices for the last two and a
half years, and will continue to do so. Focus should be on emerging
markets.
This five part strategy is one that is
based on the coming twelve months, and while anything could happen in
that time frame, getting low, small, high, fast and foreign will
likely prove to be a good way to go.
At the time of
publication, the author was neither long nor short any of the stocks
mentioned in this article, either in client accounts or personal
ones. Positions may change at any time. |